# Mintshot – Mint Tick Game

What are the chances of winning, and when should you stop.

Now that the mint tick game is back, I thought I’d have a play at lunch time. The two auctions I was playing on had a high score of 16 and 17.

After a few games I decided I wanted to know the odds/cost to ‘win’

Turn Ticks Left Crosses Left Chance of Selecting a Tick Chance to be here Every X Turns Cost to to be here
0 22 8 73.33% 100% 1 20
1 21 8 72.41% 73% 2 40
2 20 8 71.43% 53% 2 40
3 19 8 70.37% 37% 3 60
4 18 8 69.23% 26.6922% 4 80
5 17 8 68.00% 18.4792% 6 120
6 16 8 66.67% 12.5659% 8 160
7 15 8 65.22% 8.3772% 12 240
8 14 8 63.64% 5.4634% 19 380
9 13 8 61.90% 3.4767% 29 580
10 12 8 60.00% 2.1523% 47 940
11 11 8 57.89% 1.2914% 78 1,560
12 10 8 55.56% 0.7476% 134 2,680
13 9 8 52.94% 0.4153% 241 4,820
14 8 8 50.00% 0.2199% 455 9,100
15 7 8 46.67% 0.1099% 910 18,200
16 6 8 42.86% 0.0513% 1,950 39,000
17 5 8 38.46% 0.0220% 4,458 90,960
18 4 8 33.33% 0.0085% 11,825 236,500
19 3 8 27.27% 0.0028% 35,473 709,460
20 2 8 20.00% 0.0008% 130,065 2,601,300
21 1 8 11.11% 0.0002% 650,325 13,006,500
22 0 8 0.00% 0.0000% 5,852,925 117,058,500

So to get 16 ticks is a 1 in ~2000 event, and 17 is a 1 in ~4500.

So I then played 100 games, recording the outcomes and got the following histogram:

Tick Count Games Games with >= #Ticks Effective Game Percentage
0 26 100 100.00%
1 25 74 74.00%
2 15 49 49.00%
3 8 34 34.00%
4 13 26 26.00%
5 1 13 13.00%
6 4 12 12.00%
7 4 8 8.00%
8 1 4 4.00%
9 1 3 3.00%
10 1 2 2.00%
11 1 1 1.00%

Which is in-line with the expected chances from above.

So if you are hoping for a lucky brake, good luck….